Mortgage rates are up, so fewer people can afford to buy homes. That means additional demand for single-family rentals and apartments, right? Well, probably not. We're increasingly skeptical of that prevailing view.

We would bet instead on rental demand fundamentals remaining healthy, but trending down below 2021 peak levels.

Why? A few key reasons: First, there's little evidence of a trade-off effect between for-sale and for-rent homes.

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