The Fed "has pushed us into an inflection point," according to one industry watcher, and "may be oversteering" as additional rate hikes loom before year's end.

"I think the Fed may be oversteering," Marcus & Millichap's John Chang says in a new analysis. "Think back a year ago…inflation was already rising rapidly but the Fed held to its position that inflation was transitory. They kept their foot on the accelerator with quantitative easing until they started to back off in November…even then, they phased it out over a four-month span. The Fed was holding interest rates down until March of this year. Now they're swerving in the other direction."

Chang notes that Fed Chairman Powell has made the possibility of economic pain quite clear in his messaging since last August. And American business is taking note: in a recent survey of CEOs by KPMG, 91% said the US will face a recession in the next 12 months (though they also remain positive about their three-year outlook). Chang notes that the overall CEO confidence level has been showing "a pretty healthy decline" as well, though it remains higher than when the world entered the COVID-19 pandemic or the Great Financial Crisis. Small business confidence and consumer confidence are also showing weakness.