It's been a long, strange trip since the earlier part of 2022, according to new survey research out from Lightbox. From a relatively rosy outlook on the markets months ago, things have taken a turn in keeping with changing clocks and in plunging into a land short on natural light.
Yes, the immediate future is looking rather dim, and many in CRE investment are worried. "Nearly 70 percent of respondents to this LightBox Investor Sentiment survey characterized themselves as either concerned or bearish about the commercial estate market for the balance of 2022," the report said. The split was 56% concerned and 34% very concerned; 10% weren't concerned at all.
Leading into the dual concern was a trifecta of factors that those in the industry saw as the biggest threats to CRE: rising interest rates, inflation, and supply chain. The combination shows particularly keen eyesight. While many, including some big names in economics, have wanted to blame everything on lax monetary policy, that seems overly simplistic. Long-standing dovish Fed strategy had been an attempt to gin up economic activity. But it was massive systemic supply chain problems experts had warned against for decades that, sparked by the pandemic and national responses to it, which turned into the logistical disasters that choked supply dry. And then came Russia's invasion of Ukraine, pushing inflation in areas like energy and food even higher and faster.
Want to continue reading?
Become a Free ALM Digital Reader.
Once you are an ALM Digital Member, you’ll receive:
- Breaking commercial real estate news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
- Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
- Critical coverage of the property casualty insurance and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
Already have an account? Sign In Now
*May exclude premium content© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.