Likely Renters Start Flexing Electoral Muscles

Going into the midterm elections, rent control was explicitly on the ballot in a number of states. Why/? The cost of housing, according to the Associated Press.

The issue of regulation on multifamily has been controversial for years. But ultimately the decisions are political, and office holders who depend on votes may lean toward the bigger masses of votes. If that means renters in a given market, the ongoing results could change from past trends.

Since early fall, rent control talk and action has been taking place in many states across the country, including Florida, California, Minnesota, New York, and Nevada.

The National Multifamily Housing Council has pointed to two aspects of rent control in its 2022 NMHC Midterm Election Report. One was the extent of other local rent control ballot measures that appeared in the recent election.

In Portland, Maine and then three places in California—Pasadena, Richmond, and Santa Monica—there were votes. All but one immediately passed. The Pasadena measure seems still too close to call, though a Friday count update showed an expanding margin in favor, as the Pasadena Star-News reported. In each case, at stake was a limit on how large annual rent increases could be.

Apartment List speculated in late October that a long-standing voter turnout gap between renters and owners could be narrowing. “We’ve argued in the past that increased political engagement among a coalition of renters could have the potential to swing elections, and the upcoming midterms could prove to be a turning point where such a movement gains momentum,” the site said.”

Currently, there doesn’t seem to be any direct data to show the turnout of each group. Various exit polls that GlobeSt.com reviewed had somewhat different questions and responses, with differentiation between homeowners and renters not an apparent direct question in the currently available results.

But remembering that demographic traits like income and age tend to break toward people more likely to rent, there is notable, although somewhat confusing, data from the polls. Edison Research, as reported by Reuters, found that 3 in 10 voters thought that abortion was the most important issue and 3 in 10 pointed to inflation, emphasizing economics. These split Democratic for the first and Republican for the second. There was no mention of independents, which would seem a shortcoming as about 38% describe themselves as such, as Pew Research sets out, and that is the single largest political affiliation in the country, although they tend to lean toward one of the two major parties.

As the Wall Street Journal indicates, 21% of voters live in an urban setting, where apartment living is far more common. For 47% of voters, the economy and jobs were the most important issue. Just over a third (36%) were 18 to 44, the same as in 2020; 28% were 39 or younger. In terms of education, 58% lacked a college degree. And, importantly, 58% had a household income of less than $75,000, so largely below median. About 78% lived in a household where someone in it owned the home. But the home ownership level is much lower, 66% according to government figures.

In short, it looks as though renters are starting to get their way in a number of provisions for rent control and that’s with lower turnout than their numbers would suggest possible. Should they become more motivated and organized, the dynamics of regulation could change sharply.