Deal flow slowed and pricing slumped across major commercial real estate asset classes as the third quarter ended — and that's prompted some experts to wonder if the sector will continue to hew to its historical trend of "fourth quarter comebacks."
Average price increases across major property types slowed to 14% year over year in August, a 260 basis point slump below July figures, according to MSCI Real Capital Analytics data. And while transaction volume from a dollar standpoint has been at all-time highs for much of this year, fewer properties are trading.
According to experts from SVN International, that indicates "price-growth is currently being driven more by supply shortages rather than a demand-spike." Analysts there point to MSCI data showing that transaction volume tends to perform better in the second half of the year compared to H1 in both dollars and total properties sold. Generally, total sales on average are 19% higher in Q3 and Q3 over the first two quarters and pricing tends to be up 16% in the same period.
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