The employment market has been the topic on everyone's lips as of late, as the Federal Reserve continues explicitly calling for it to cool to help tamp down inflation. But one industry watcher says job creation has been good for CRE demand — and that investors should continue to consider the long-term perspective, even if the jobs market pulls back modestly.
"Media coverage of jobs has been upside-down," says Marcus & Milichap's John Chang, noting that strong jobs figures are being portrayed as a bad thing because it signals the Fed will likely raise rates again. The US added 261,000 jobs in October, taking the total additions year-to-date to nearly 4.1 million. If the employment market adds just 210,000 more jobs int he last two months of this year, 2022 will rank as the second strongest job growth year on record.
"I think we need to look at this a bit differently," Chang says. He adds that job creation is a principal driver of all types of CRE demand, and while 4.7% wage growth is inflationary, it's just a small fraction of why the Fed's raising interest rates. And while "Chairman Powell has repeatedly specifically said the labor market needs to cool….but cooling the market may take awhile," Chang says.
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