Rising living costs — specifically for food and other packaged goods — are dragging on consumer retail spending, as year-over-year general merchandise sales revenue fell by 14% decline in the first week of November.

"The growing weekly grocery costs and monthly credit card bills have begun to chip away at discretionary purchases," said Marshal Cohen, chief retail industry advisor for NPD. "Consumers can only absorb climbing expenses for so long before they begin to reassess their spending capacity."

NPD points to rising food and beverage costs and increased spending on consumer-packaged goods in particular, noting that "the shift toward consumer spending on food in general is now affecting spending in other areas." Recent research from CBRE projects a 6.9% increase in Q4 retail sales year-over-year to $1.48 trillion, however, and experts are roundly predicting an earlier-than-normal start to the holiday shopping season.  However, costs are predicted to be higher, of course, as the Consumer Price Index continues to tick up.