Here's What To Expect For Black Friday

Black Friday may indeed be starting earlier each year as the line between holiday shopping and “just because” shopping blurs and consumers get a jump on end-of-year purchases earlier, but October visits weren’t high enough to limit performance for the shopping holiday the year, according to a Placer.ai analysis

But “inflation is already having a major effect on consumer behavior, and it is difficult to predict how the wider economic situation will impact Black Friday visits,” says Placer.ai’s Shira Petrack. “Foot traffic will likely get a lift from value-oriented consumers seeking out in-store Black Friday sales, but performance may be hampered by other consumers choosing to limit their shopping and preserve their budgets.”

But while last year’s shopping season was cut short by the Omicron variant of COVID-19, Petrack says this year’s season is likely to continue through the end of the year.

“A full holiday season gives consumers more reason to purchase gifts for friends and family and festive apparel for holiday parties – which means that, despite inflation, this year’s holiday season retail performance may still beat 2021,” she predicts.

Placer.ai’s retail foot traffic data analyzes 2017 through 2022 visit patterns to five key holiday shopping categories, including clothing brands, shopping centers, electronics stores, recreational and sporting goods retailers, and superstores.

And “the utilization of sentiment analysis – even in a small way – can help bring added and necessary color to consumer decisions and factors that truly drive behavior and demand,” says Petrack.

So onto the data: between 2017 and 2021, the Friday after Thanksgiving expectedly garnered “significantly more foot traffic” than the pre-Black Friday November average, according to Petrack: even in 2020, Black Friday visits were 91.9% higher than the daily visit average during the earlier part of November. “And in 2021, Black Friday visits compared to the pre-Black Friday November average beat both 2017 and 2018 – despite the day coming after almost two months of holiday shopping during a particularly extended season,” Petrack says.

October foot traffic this year was slightly higher than in 2019 but lower than last year which Petrack says may mean that this year’s extended season is “less likely to negatively impact” Black Friday visits, inflation notwithstanding.