The 'Record-Breaking' Black Friday Event That Really Wasn’t

Black Friday and Cyber Monday have become a blur on the holiday shopping calendar, according to retail analysts speaking this week about reported upticks in sales and traffic.

A record $9.12 billion was spent online on [Black] Friday, the biggest one-day sales figure ever, according to Adobe Analytics, which tracks nearly 90% of the top 100 retailers. That’s an increase of 2.3%, year over year, and better than the previous mark of $9.03 billion in 2020, according to Yahoo! Finance.

Dana Telsey, CEO and chief research officer of Telsey Advisory Group, speaking Nov. 29 on CNBC, called the weekend “civilized” for shoppers, citing that the door-buster approach has been subdued. She said there will be a lull now for shoppers up until Dec. 15 because shoppers know they don’t have to buy now because inventory levels are adequate, and they can wait a bit longer for a better deal.

Adobe Analytics on Tuesday morning reported that Cyber Monday’s sales figure is expected to be $11.6 billion and sales for the cyber week overall are expected to be up 3.7% year-over-year to $35.2 billion.

But data such as this, presented so far this week following the post-Thanksgiving sales feast, was not always inflation-adjusted, meaning, a 2% to 3% rise hardly made up for the 6% to 8% inflation rate the country has endured in recent months, said Victoria Greene, CIO, G Squared Private Wealth, speaking Monday morning on CNBC.

“If you’re buying the same toy as you did a year ago, you might be paying 10% to 15% more for it,” Greene said. “So, consumers are spending more not because they want to, but because they have to.”

CNBC anchor Tyler Mathisen countered that Black Friday and Cyber Monday remind him of times back in the Internet’s early years, early this century. “Today, it’s meaningless,” he said.

Former Toys R Us CEO Jerry Storch, now CEO of Storch Consultants, said those numbers were disappointing compared to recent, year-over-year, monthly sales figures that showed online spending ahead 12% in October and total retail up 8%.

All the Holiday Sales are ‘Mushed’ Around

Appearing Monday on business programs, Storch said, “These days, Black Friday sales began in July and really, it’s Black Friday Week. All the holiday sales are mushed around so it’s hard to tell when holiday shopping season even began.

“[The prior week] used to be when all the retailers ran their special ads, and it used to be the biggest ad days of the year. This year, no one ran ads. Instead, you see things like, ‘Deals for Days’ campaigns.”

Storch said retailers can’t generate a bigger market just by running a sale at a different time. You might be able to take share from a competitor, but in the end, basically, everyone is still going to buy one gift per person on their list.”

Storch said consumers’ budgets are going to necessities, such as food and gasoline. He said there are some winners: Walmart, Costco, Lowe’s and Home Depot, and Dick’s Sporting Goods and that the restaurant business “had a huge weekend” of traffic and sales with growth in double digits.

In-Store Traffic Up 2.9%, Reports Sensormatic

Shopper traffic data indicates that in-store traffic on Black Friday rose by 2.9% compared to 2021, according to Sensormatic Solutions, the leading global retail solutions portfolio of Johnson Controls.

Its preliminary shopper visit data for U.S. brick-and-mortar retail stores and shopping centers indicated visits to physical stores on Thanksgiving Day increased by 19.7% year over year.

Furthermore, enclosed mall traffic increased 1.2% and non-mall traffic (e.g., lifestyle centers, strip centers and standalone stores) increased 4.7% compared to Black Friday 2021.

Some Retailers See 300% Boost, Placer.ai

Placer.ai data showed that shopping malls saw far and above-average visits with indoor mall visits up 261% compared to the daily average for Q1-Q3 2022, outlet malls saw visits up almost 366%, and open-air lifestyle centers saw visits up around 151%.

Compared to the first three weeks of November 2022, visits were up about 277% (indoor), 395% (outlet), and almost 160% (open-air lifestyle centers), respectively, at those mall types.

For example, Kohl’s saw a 318.5% increase in foot traffic on Black Friday 2022 compared to the first three weeks of November 2022, according to Placer.ai.

“The data serves as the latest indication of the ongoing decline of Black Friday’s centrality,” said Ethan Chernofsky, VP of Marketing at Placer.ai, tells GlobeSt.com.

“Nonetheless, the day did still drive a massive surge in visits with some retailers seeing increases of 300% or more on the average daily visits in November in the weeks leading up to Thanksgiving.”

Mark Sigal, CEO of Datex Property Solutions, tells GlobeSt.com that what he’s seeing across Datex clients is “strong, but not frantic, shopping center and store traffic across retail locations, marked by good but not earth-shattering deals on Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

“Whereas last year’s holiday season was driven by pent-up demand post pandemic, fatter wallets post stimulus, and the artificial scarcity driven by supply chain bottlenecks, this year feels much more measured, albeit strong.”

Sigal believes that this is indicative of merchants focusing on bottom-line operating margins over top-line sales, which is a healthy sign of operator durability over desperation and discounts.

“At the same time, consumers are still relatively flush, and despite inflation and recession risk, inflation seems to be tamping down,” he said. “This yields a healthy balance between merchants and consumers, which is a good thing.”