CBRE forecasts a 15% year-over-year drop in U.S. commercial real estate investment volume in 2023, although it will exceed the pre-pandemic record annual total in 2019.
Investment activity likely will bottom out in the first quarter and then gradually improve, it said. Then, by Q2 2023, a clearer picture should emerge about the terminal (max) federal funds rate and the overall economic outlook.
"Long-term yields and spreads should help reduce capital cost and allow for more sound underwriting. As a result, we expect quarter-over-quarter improvements in capital markets activity starting in Q2," according to its report.
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