An economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco thinks he's found a new signifier of a coming recession that could offer a timelier indication than other techniques in common use.
The US is deep in what you could call the Recession Follies — one of those times when the economy is slowing. People wonder if the result will be a gentle landing or plow-into-the-ground recession. That's why there is so much churning over signs, like Treasury yield curve inversions, as though economists were an ancient Greece and poking through a pile of bird entrails.
Some say comparing the 3-month and 10-month is the gold standard. Others opt for different ones or a mix of several yield inversions. But there's a problem with such semiotic exercises: timing. Depending on the types of Treasurys involved in the inversion, you could be looking at about a recession somewhere from a year to two in the future.
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