Watching experts trying to follow financial markets and explain what their movements mean sometimes seems like people slipping on an icy sidewalk in winter, waving their arms about as they try to maintain their balance.

That dynamic came into play last week with reports of a Treasury bond market rally that supposedly began to reduce the negative split between shorter-term and longer-term bonds. The negative split, which creates inverted yield curves (when short-term yields exceed those of longer-term bonds), supposedly began to recede, which should be a sign that perhaps a recession might not happen.

Unfortunately, a GlobeSt.com review of data from the Treasury Department suggested the opposite. The split between 3-month and 10-year Treasurys started on January 3 at 74 basis points, with the 3-month yield higher, and ended on Friday even wider at 112 basis points. That was exactly the opposite of some reports and should have suggested a higher possibility of a recession.