In its semi-annual survey of internal investment sales advisors and mortgage bankers, Berkadia found expectations that multifamily fundamentals would remain strong while returning to pre-pandemic levels, wide variation in market expectations by geographic region, and a lot of turbulence coming.
"Despite market uncertainty, the multifamily industry shows resilience," the report said was a common perspective. But they don't expect a continuation of the pricing power that existed through a significant portion of last year.
Only 30% of respondents expected apartment supply to outpace renter demand in 2023, which 59% said no and 11% were unsure. That alone should keep a rental pricing collapse from happening. However, 67% of respondents, when asked about cap rates, expected them to climb this year; 25% said they'd remain the same and 8% expected lower values. Nationally, most investors are underwriting cap exit rates 25 to 50 basis points higher than going cap rates. But in the mid-Atlantic, southwest, and Rocky Mountain regions, the exit increases over current cap rates are up 50 to 75 basis points.
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