As much as many in CRE, to say nothing of investors in other asset types, would like to think the Federal Reserve will stop the rate increases, the released minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting are clear that this is unlikely to happen. More importantly, they show why.

"With inflation still well above the Committee's longer-run goal of 2 percent, participants agreed that inflation was unacceptably high," the minutes said. Even while "inflation data received over the past three months showed a welcome reduction in the monthly pace of price increases … substantially more evidence of progress across a broader range of prices would be required to be confident that inflation was on a sustained downward path."

Housing services inflation would likely begin falling later this year, they thought. That is important as shelter prices have been a significant driver of inflation and must come down if rates are eventually to lower. That will mean pressure on multifamily, though, because lowering prices means less support for higher property values and, as a result, higher cap rates.