What goes up must come down is a good description for investment sales activity in commercial real estate. The brakes finally hit in the second half of 2022, as trading volume in the last quarter was $131.1 billion, or 62.2% down from the end of 2021, according to Colliers. That varied by property type, with retail at the lower end down 55% to 84%

Forget low cap rates, as you can't expect a return on 3% to 4% rates. Owners are generally holding tight and not selling unless they have a capital event. Interested buyers are looking for discounts.

Distress may emerge in parts of multifamily because of the financial structure of deals with higher interest rates combined with a development wave that should push down rental prices. Quarterly volume in Q4 was down $50.4 billion.