If you want to venture a guess on which US metro has the highest risk of economic damage from climate change—according to a new study from the ESG team at Moody's Analytics—don't make the same mistake that we did.

We assumed that Moody's was talking about right now—and, therefore, the choice is obvious: the frontrunners on the US risk leaderboard are cities in the Southwest that have surging population growth, temperatures that soared over 110 degrees F. last summer and, according to the US Interior Dept. may run out of water this summer if the dams on the Colorado River have to be shut down because water levels in reservoirs get too low.

No, apparently being able to fry an egg on the pavement and having no water to drink are old-school metrics that can't give you a clear picture of The Impact of Climate Change on US Subnational Economies, which is what Moody's chose to call their new report.