Predicting Climate Change by Throwing Darts at a Map

If you want to venture a guess on which US metro has the highest risk of economic damage from climate change—according to a new study from the ESG team at Moody’s Analytics—don’t make the same mistake that we did.

We assumed that Moody’s was talking about right now—and, therefore, the choice is obvious: the frontrunners on the US risk leaderboard are cities in the Southwest that have surging population growth, temperatures that soared over 110 degrees F. last summer and, according to the US Interior Dept. may run out of water this summer if the dams on the Colorado River have to be shut down because water levels in reservoirs get too low.

No, apparently being able to fry an egg on the pavement and having no water to drink are old-school metrics that can’t give you a clear picture of The Impact of Climate Change on US Subnational Economies, which is what Moody’s chose to call their new report.

And yes, we also had a problem with the title, since we weren’t sure what the reference to “subnational” meant, envisioning a foot-long sandwich with meatballs and provolone. According to Moody’s, it’s somewhere between regional and metro.

“Understanding regional nuance is critical in a nation with significant economic and geographic diversity and nearly 100,000 miles of shoreline,” the analysts said, in their intro.

Undoubtedly, this is true in everything from climate change assessments to knowing in advance whether your barbeque sauce is going to have too much vinegar in it or if you have to fork over $16 to cross the Hudson River.

As far as climate change metrics are concerned, sunny-side up eggs and running water are out, but “parameters from the Network for the Greening of the Financial System” are essential, the report said. The financial system needs more greenbacks?

Okay, we’ll cut to the chase here. After producing several charts which clearly establish that—stop the presses!—A) the metros on the East and Gulf Coast have a substantial hurricane and sea-level risk and B) the metros in the Southwest are facing “water stress,” Moody’s unveils the piece de resistance of its analysis:

Here, without further ado, are the top 10 metros where “Chronic Physical Risk is More Widespread” based on percentiles of “various hazard types,” including heat, water stress and sea-level rise.

(Okay, we’ll give you a hint: the metro most at risk to climate change is a city famous for having four different climates on any given day, depending on which neighborhood you happen to be strolling in.)

San Francisco.

Cape Coral, FL.

New York City.

Long Island, NY.

Oakland, CA.

Phoenix.

Tucson, AZ.

Wilmington, DE.

West Palm Beach, FL.

North Port, FL.

Yes, in case you’re wondering, West Palm Beach isn’t actually on the ocean, but sits behind the barrier island that is home to Palm Beach, which didn’t make Moody’s top 10.

Long Island isn’t a region or a metro—but it is shaped like a foot-long subnation when you look at a map.