When you've hit the peak, the only way forward is down, which seems to be where CRE transactions are going at the moment. MSCI's Capital Trends report for February makes it clear.

"The markets are moving faster than a monthly review of deal trends can realistically capture," they said. "When we started this report, which provides a review of the commercial mortgage market in 2022, Silicon Valley Bank had not even failed yet. That said, the trends in deal activity, pricing, and credit availability were already pointing downward before the recent challenges in the banking world. The events in recent weeks might be viewed as a force accelerating changes that were already underway."

By underway, they meant that February deal volume was down 51% year over year. If it hadn't been for the take-private STORE Capital REIT deal—a hefty transaction—the 2023/2022 February comparison would have been off by 59% instead.