The latest economic policy survey of 217 National Association of Business Economics members suggests a recession will happen in 2023, if a majority vote were to decide.

"Panelists generally agree on the outlook for inflation and the consequences of rate hikes from the Federal Reserve," NABE Policy Survey Chair Mervin Jebaraj, University of Arkansas, said in prepared remarks. "More than seven in ten panelists believe that growth in the consumer price index (CPI) will remain above 4% through the end of 2023, and more than two-thirds are not confident that the Fed will be able to bring inflation down to its 2% goal within the next two years without inducing a recession." More than a quarter (26%) described themselves as "not at all confident" and 43% said "not very confident."

"Panelists were asked which factors they believe will be most instrumental in bringing down inflation," said the report. "Tighter monetary policy is cited by 71% of respondents, lower commodity prices by 44%, supply-chain realignments by 42%, and weaker output growth by 40% of respondents. Higher productivity growth (cited by 24% of respondents) and a stronger U.S. dollar (cited by 12% of respondents) are less widely seen as instrumental."