Getting hit in the head by an acorn and deciding that the sky is falling, as happened in the old folk tale, is objectively silly. And yet, seeing two banks collapse within a short period of each other and then wondering what might happen to CRE lending, especially after the experience of the global financial crisis, isn't necessarily ridiculous. But it may not be reasonable.

"When examining the real cross-exposures of the sectors and structural differences between now and 15 years ago during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), the conclusions are less sensationalistic and more nuanced than some headlines suggest, though both banking and CRE face challenges of a rapidly rising rate environment," Moody's Analytics said in a recent commentary.

As the firm noted, rising interest rates have already slowed transactions and pushed valuations downward. With rounds of refinancing coming, there will be some CRE loan defaults. For example, Chetrit Group, Columbia Property Trust, Brookfield, and Veritas Investments have all defaulted on loans this year. M&T Bank has said that 20% of its office loans are distressed.