Many recent studies and analyses on commercial real estate have been delivering negative news: rent growth down, valuations down, financial pressures up, and some sectors like office facing potential graver news. Like this is news to those in the industry.
Swiss Re Institute, which produces research from data and risk knowledge that the reinsurer Swiss Re has through its operations, has a new take on U.S. commercial real estate: "expecting prolonged challenges." That is, corrections will last "several years."
The good news: pressures are unlikely to pose systemic risks. The not-so-good news is that "structural and secular declines" in CRE "will contribute to the fragility and weakening of the U.S. economy." A logical deduction is the possibility of vicious circle, where the economy hurts CRE, which then further hurts the economy.
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