Just in time for the Federal Reserve's next signal, JPMorgan Chase has unveiled a GPT-4 based tool it says can predict the Fed's policy direction by analyzing the "tenor" of policy signals—rating them from easy to restrictive on a scale the bank is calling the Hawk-Dove Score.
A team of JPMorgan economists, led by Joseph Lupton, fed the GPT language model 25 years of Fed statements and central-banker speeches to create the scale.
The team said it plotted the index against a range of asset performances and discovered that the tool can predict changes in policy and issue what JPMorgan is calling "tradeable signals."
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