Is a recession on the immediate horizon? By Bloomberg's reckoning — measuring first-quarter earnings of the S&P 500 — it is. Profits are down 3.7% year over year on average. "While data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence shows that 78% of firms surpassed forecasts, that's less impressive than it sounds, given analysts had slashed their expectations before the season kicked off," the report said.
This is supposedly the second straight quarter of earnings declines and more the potential for more doldrums through the third quarter of 2023, "a longer profit recession than during the pandemic."
Along with the concern over profits have been tens of thousands of job cuts, downward pressure on margins as less demand crimps pricing power, and then problems in the economy coming back onto banks, especially small ones, with CRE mortgage defaults hurting that sector.
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