Advanced retail sales estimates for April came out, showing a 0.4% increase over March. It was a bit of a good, bad, and unknown results.
The unknown part comes from the common problem with sales data from the Census Bureau. The statistical analysis uses a 90% confidence interval, an unusually broad one that happens to cross the zero line. As the Census states, "There is insufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero."
The numbers were "adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences but not for price changes." So, an increase, if it happened, could be due in part to inflation.
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