Many in CRE — and many without — have noticed that the office sector is under serious challenges and pressures. Green Street has quantified the risks through the current state of CMBS loans either secured by office properties or in portfolios where they account for more than half of the outstanding balance.
By the close of 2023, approximately $25.3 billion of such loans will have been set to mature across 245 loans with a total property count of 602. The majority will face "significant refinancing challenges, though of that number, $16 billion worth have extension options.
To reach this step, the firm used its automated valuation model to estimate the underlying value of the properties. Next, it calculated a mark-to-market value for the properties, and then current values and NOI to project proceeds.
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