Fitch Ratings had some good news in its U.S. CMBS 2022 Loan Default Study. With all the talk of higher interest rates, bank problems, and a challenging financing front, overall defaults slowed.
"The total annual and cumulative default rates for 2022 were 0.3% and 17.9%, respectively, edging lower from 0.4% and 18.0% in 2021," the firm wrote, then adding how the news might be no better than the logical result of arithmetic, "due to a 22% reduction in total defaults being offset by a comparable decline in issuance from the prior year." So, a linear relation between the number of defaults and issued loans, which makes sense.
Something that also makes sense is, given increased difficult in refinancing and many loans after 2010 obtained under low rates and high leverage, that the amount of maturity defaults has increased.
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