You'd have to go back to 2014 to find a first quarter multifamily debt origination volume that was lower than in 2023, according to data from Newmark. The year-over-year comparison in 2023 Q1 was a 61% drop. Even though that is a comparison to a historically high period, that is cold comfort when the lesser examples were the years of beaten down recovery coming out of the Global Financial Crisis, a crash second only to the Great Depression.

"While the volumes are subject to future revision, adjustments are likely to be limited," Newmark wrote. "The [Mortgage Bankers Association's] originations index found similar results, with first-quarter origination down 55.0% year over year, lending further credibility."

It's a surprising state for what had been one of the two darlings of CRE investment during the pandemic, along with industrial. A big reason is the pressure on banks and their defensive measures when it comes to lending.