It seems like every day there's new research and numeric evidence that the office segment is in generally deep trouble. Things are moving toward likely longer modifications, CMBS defaults potentially hitting a tipping point, and potential overall disaster in refinancing.

The conclusions are driven by falling usage, unsustainable levels of vacancy, working-from-home and hybrid models imposed on corporations, tumbling property values, rising interest rates, unaffordable interest rate caps, and tightening lending standards.

Well, it's another day and here's another study, this one from S&P Global Ratings. The key takeaways include:

• As market values of office properties fall, smacked down by lower space demands and rising interest rates, the ability for borrowers to get "new and favorable financing for mature U.S. office-backed loans is waning."
• A macro-level scenario analysis suggests that if overall market value dropped by 40% from initial valuation (and remember those are valuations when money was cheap and, in many cases, prices had been driven up), a third of the outstanding number of office-backed secured loans would be in trouble.
• Existing lenders probably won't face "losses across the board," there are assets that will change hands if borrowers and lenders can't agree on loan modifications or extensions.

S&P Global Ratings "undertook a macro-level scenario analysis, using various financing parameters and imputed market values, on a sample comprising the 72 U.S. single-asset, single borrower (SASB) CMBS transactions it currently rates."