If there is to be a doomsday for CMBS loans that go into delinquency, it is likely to occur in the next two years, in the view of some experts.
"Right now, the uncertainty in pricing that has stalled deals also is preventing a wave of action on the default front. At some point, trades will start and set pricing standards. When pricing is set, the dam will break," a recent bulletin from Yardi Matrix predicts.
There are already signs of potential trouble. An analysis by Moody's Investors Service cited by Yardi found that over 75% of CMBS conduit loans were paid off at maturity in 2023. However, there were signs of increasing defaults. According to Moody's, some 7.3% of loans that matured in the first quarter, and 18.7% of loans that matured in April or May, were delinquent.
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