​Retail Tenant Mix Makes a Difference in Cell Phone Tracking

Cell phone tracking data can aid in analyzing tenant composition and understanding the number of visitors to shopping areas, according to a new report from Colliers.

“Understanding the dynamics within centers can help investors uncover better values and understand inherent risks for portfolios,” analyst Aaron Jodka writes.

After all, grocery-anchored retail had a record transactions volume totaling nearly $15 billion, according to DLA Piper Global Real Estate’s annual survey released last month.

The Colliers report focused on Publix, a popular grocery chain in the Southeast.

The eight Publix in Florida had 1.70 million to 1.74 million visits over the past year ended in May; in theory, these stores and centers should be priced similarly for investors. However, foot-traffic data revealed potentially differing risk profiles, according to the report.

Within this set of stores, total visits are essentially equal, at 1.70 million, but the number of individual visitors differed greatly, based on tourism.

The Publix at Ocean Park Pavilion in Panama City Beach has 244,000 visitors, but the average visit frequency (visits divided by visitors) is just seven. Contrast that to the store at Park View Commons in Ocala, which has nearly the same total traffic but from 71,000 visitors, for a visit frequency above 24.

Comparing trailing 12-month traffic through May, to full-year 2021, the Ocala Publix is up about 7%, while Panama City Beach visits increased 54%, as it welcomed back tourists.

Data from the five most-visited Publix in the state range from 1.83 million visits to 2.05 million.

Publix at the Shoppes at Paradise Point in Fort Walton Beach has the most visits based on stores studied, and Publix drives 83% of its visits. Co-tenants include Great Clips, Painting with a Twist, Joy Massage, a nail salon, Waffle House, and a liquor store.

Conversely, the Publix at Collier Commons in Land O’ Lakes accounts for 41% of the center’s traffic. Other tenants in this center include a Belk Outlet, a nail salon, Planet Smoothie, H&R Block, a dry cleaner, and fitness spaces, and other dining options.

As for grocery retail performance overall, Placer.ai found that after a great run during the pandemic years, that sector flourished, but inflation has caused traffic to stall.

By Q1, YoY grocery visits were down almost every week.

“Now, nearly halfway through 2023, location intelligence shows that grocery traffic is still lower than last year,” the data analytics firm said. “And this contraction in grocery visits is not happening in a vacuum – retail visits, in general, have been on a downward trend over the past several months, with few sectors remaining unaffected by current economic headwinds.”