Many economists have started to ask whether a soft landing — an ultimate reduction of inflation without the appearance of significantly higher unemployment or a recession — might now be possible. Some indicators are looking positive, and yet there are complications in the details that urge some caution, such as June's improvements being mostly due to some easier factors, with EY-Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco pointing out on Twitter that the "free lunch is over." Improvement will need to come from more slower core services prices.

There is another issue as well, as Moody's Analytics points out. The firm thinks that CMBS data shows that ultimately "we expect delinquencies will rise, and values will fall, especially for 'obsolete' office properties."

June saw an additional balance of $485 million of newly delinquent CMBS loans, which are running one to two months behind. About 61% of the new delinquencies came from office properties. That compares to less than 1% for industrial-backed loans.