The Treasury Department continues its issuance of notes to bring in cash it technically needs to pay bills, including debt service on past borrowing (regardless of modern monetary theory, politicians aren't enabling money creation with the hope that inflation won't recur).
In the process, Pershing Square Capital Management founder and CEO Bill Ackman said on Twitter that his firm is shorting the 30-year Treasury. "When you couple new issuance with QT [quantitative tightening, in which the Federal Reserve does not keep buying bonds], it is hard to imagine how the market absorbs such a large increase in supply without materially higher rates," he wrote on Thursday.
If he is right, yields would go up and prices down because of an imbalance in supply of longer-term bonds and demand for them. But what does that mean for commercial real estate borrowing rates? Maybe not a lot.
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