The Federal Reserve Bank of New York published its monthly survey of consumer expectations, which declined in July 2023 to a median 3.5% for the one-year horizon, down from 3.8% in June. For the three-year horizon, median expectations were down to 2.9%, compared to 3.0% in June. And the five-year went from 3.0% in June to 2.9% in July.

What has also happened is a narrowing of expectations over the three different time horizons. Over most of the last ten years, the expectations of one-, three-, and five-year inflation were very close. They began to separate in May 2021, medians expanding to 6.8% for one year, 3.6% for three years, and 2.8% for the five-year view by June 2022.

Lower expectations for future inflation, whether one-, three-, or five-year, roughly correlated with higher income or education. For age, it was reversed, as people who were older were more likely to expect higher inflation in the short run.