Over the next two years, CRE borrowers will face more than $1 trillion in debt maturities. Some may be able to refinance or restructure their debt, but others may have to sell assets as lending sources become hard to access. 

Keyway used AI technology to identify and analyze the refinance risk of multifamily property owners in the five Sunbelt markets of Dallas-Fort Worth, Atlanta, Austin, Nashville and Raleigh/Durham and identified 300 owners who control 126,000 units that are likely to face debt maturity issues as more than half of the properties in their portfolio face the risk. Those owners who haven't diversified well—and are considered small with just one or two properties—may face more risk than larger owners who own more than two.

The analysis put the refinance risk into two categories: Elevated, which means the properties have loan maturity dates through December 2025 and extra elevated, which means the loan maturity dates are through the same period, but the loans originated during the pandemic beginning in 2020.