One of the inflation factors the Federal Reserve watches carefully is changes in wages. Their theory is that higher wages are a major driver of inflation, even though wage growth hasn't for the most part kept up with the growing cost of living.

The news, then, out of the July consumer survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York won't be one to cheer the inflation hawks at the Fed. The mean job offer wage expectation within the next four months, conditional on expecting an offer, was $67,416. That is the highest point since the survey series started in 2014.

Back at the beginning of the surveys, which are nationally representative according to the New York Fed, the average job offer wage expectation was $48,829. During the March 2023 survey, the mean expectation was $58,710, down significantly from $61,187 in November 2022. A year ago, the answer was $60,310.