Such high-profile economists as Janet Yellen, Paul Krugman, and Larry Summers have been saying that a so-called soft landing — reduction of inflation without a recession — seemed more certain. Inflation was slowing, consumers kept spending more, and the job market continued strong.

But over the last few weeks, with a variety of data points on consumers and some worrying events that have queued up to raise the question of whether the confidence is well placed. As Bloomberg wrote, even with a government shutdown averted — for now, that is, in a fragile temporary compromise that could break down by just before Thanksgiving — there is the UAW strike expanding to new targets, and the restart of student loan payments. In the worst case, those three factors alone could cut a 100 basis points off Q4 GDP.

They also aren't the only considerations. U.S. growth is below the nominal federal funds rate, which is typically a bad sign. According to research from the San Francisco Fed, the excess savings from pandemic emergency payments are just about gone. Credit card debt, which had dropped just a couple of years ago, is now at record highs.