Even as such high-profile economists as Janet Yellen, Paul Krugman, and Larry Summers have been saying that a so-called soft landing — reduction of inflation without a recession — was in sight, there have also been increasing signs of a bigger chance of an economic downturn. And now, multiple Federal Reserve officials are warning that interest rates could remain elevated for a long time.

U.S. growth is below the nominal federal funds rate, which is typically a bad sign. San Francisco Fed research reinforces that excess savings from pandemic emergency payments are largely gone. Credit card debt is at a new high after a pandemic reduction, food and energy prices are up, major union strikes are underway, incomes mostly didn't stay up with rising prices that haven't retreated, consumer confidence is down, and many of the broad public whose spending is 68% of GDP are hurting.

The Fed has said for some time that its decisions about ongoing levels of the federal funds rate that affects all interest rates depend not on warm and convenient feelings, but on practical data. Top officials have calmly been applying vague Fed-speak in what seems a coordinated effort to manage expectations.