Financial markets are again in a pattern of leaning one way when a day's news seems to promise what they want — an end to Federal Reserve rate hikes — and then changing directions when the winds shift and those reading tea leaves try to keep up with the most current news. One theme has been that higher Treasury yields could complement and even take over for other monetary tightening actions, like further rate increases. Treasury yield rates do heavily influence many interest rates, providing as they do a safe baseline for determining risk-adjusted returns. The point some were making was that yields were climbing. But trying to make decisions based on daily movements is confusing at best. The 30-year's close on Wednesday was the lowest since the opening of October, hitting 4.73% when the high on the previous Friday had been 4.95%. Same for the 10-year — 4.95% on Friday, 4.73% on Wednesday. The 2-month edged down from 5.63% on Friday to 5.61% on Wednesday. And the 2-year, 5.08% on Friday, 4.99% on Wednesday. When numbers seemed to be climbing, there was more certainty, even though data regularly fluctuates. Going further, different executives at the Fed have been offering different projections: • Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic said that the Fed might be able to stand down, as Reuters reported. "'I actually don't think we need to increase rates anymore' to get too-high inflation back down to the Fed's 2% goal, Bostic told the American Bankers Association, to applause." • "We have seen some progress on lowering inflation over that time," said Governor Michelle W. Bowman at the Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee and Policy Center for the New South Marrakech Economic Festival, Marrakech, Morocco. "However, inflation remains well above the FOMC's 2 percent target. Domestic spending has continued at a strong pace, and the labor market remains tight. This suggests that the policy rate may need to rise further and stay restrictive for some time to return inflation to the FOMC's goal." • "A seemingly orchestrated message from Fed speakers, particularly comments from Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, suggesting that higher interest rates, coupled with the Fed's message 'higher rates for longer,' tightened financial conditions enough, and in essence did the Fed's job for it," said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial, in emailed comments to GlobeSt.com. "The Fed's Vice Chair typically speaks, especially at what has been construed as a 'pivot' or turning point in policy, in concert with the Fed's chair." • Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said on Tuesday in a moderated discussion at Minot State University, "The 10-year Treasury yield has gone up quite a bit. It's a little bit perplexing what is driving them to go up as much as they have in recent months," as MarketWatch reported. • And in reviewing the minutes released yesterday from the Federal Open Market Committee September meeting, Oxford Economics wrote in a note, "On balance, the data released in the last three weeks may have increased the odds of another rate hike slightly, but we think the tightening in financial conditions since is a mitigating factor and will – alongside a recognition that risks to the outlook are becoming more two-sided – keep the Fed from raising rates again. However, the question of whether there will be another rate hike is almost becoming beside the point. Like financial market participants, Fed officials are focusing more on how long rates will need to be held at restrictive levels. Our October baseline calls for three rate cuts in 2024, with the first to come at the May FOMC meeting." It is going to take time for the trends to resolve and to learn what the Fed will do — and how markets and the economy will respond. Patience and prudence might be the best ways to take it all.