Someone who has spent the past 30 years specializing in retail asset  protection, including 23 years at Walmart's HQ in Bentonville, AR, says that people are conflating the burgeoning growth of retail shrink with the in-store shoplifting epidemic dominating the headlines.

In-store theft, as well as organized retail crime, no doubt is a major factor expanding the huge tallies of shrink being reported by some of the largest retailers, including Target. But huge opportunities for shrink also occur in the supply chain and from accounting errors.

According to Brand Elverston, now an industry consultant, retail shrink totals are based on an annual reconciliation of what a retailer's financial ledgers say matched against the physical count: the gap is shrink.

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