The Q3 real GDP advanced estimate came out today at an annualize rate of 4.9%, with the Q2 advance estimate of 2.4% brought down to 2.1% instead. So, there's no telling where Q3 will ultimately land. It might be lower or, even, higher.

But 4.9% is far hotter than what the Federal Reserve has been looking for, and that probably means continued, if not increased, pressure to keep interest rates high and, therefore, CRE industry spirits low.

First, some observations. "Virtually ignoring over 500 bps of policy rate hikes in the past 19 months, the U.S. economy accelerated at its fastest pace in nearly two years in Q3," wrote Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets Economic Research, in a note. He observed that consumer spending was up 4.0% clip — again, in real terms, so over inflation. Goods and services spending made "broad gains" and even discretionary items showed strength.

Want to continue reading?
Become a Free ALM Digital Reader.

Once you are an ALM Digital Member, you’ll receive:

  • Breaking commercial real estate news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
  • Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
  • Critical coverage of the property casualty insurance and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
NOT FOR REPRINT

© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.