Apartment Markets That Should Outperform in 2024

Are apartment rents flat, rising, or falling/? It depends on location, a RealPage analysis suggests. In markets where there is a lot of new supply, landlords may have to shave rents or hold them flat. But in markets that have seen a low rate of new construction and high occupancy, some owners are enjoying sizable rent growth. “Rents growing where supply isn’t going,” RealPage quipped.

Nationally, rent growth in October 2023 held steady at a flat rate of 0.1% annually for the second consecutive month. But taking into account base rent plus related expenses, effective rents fell 0.56% this October, compared to a 0.54% drop in October 2022. “Those cuts rank as the deepest for any October since the Great Financial Crisis,” the report stated. “In other words, one deep monthly cut is replacing another in the year-over-year calculation, creating the appearance of stability in the year-over-year rent metric.”

While RealPage expects the flat base rent to stay for the rest of 2023, the key question is what will happen in the first half of 2024 when supply levels peak following the biggest apartment construction boom in more than 50 years. Those markets where rents are rising significantly have seen below average construction levels. “Of the 21 markets with rent growth at or above 4% annually, all but one had a construction rate (total units under way as a share of total existing inventory) below the U.S. average,” the report stated.

Midland, TX, with no new construction, experienced 13% effective rent growth. It was followed by Springfield, MA, with a 0.5% construction rate and 8.6% rent growth. Other metros in this fortunate category included Madison, WI, Rochester, NY, Fargo, ND, College Station, TX, Champaign/Urbana, IL, Buffalo, NY and Lincoln, NE. The exception was Trenton, NJ, which had an 8.6% rise in construction but still managed to raise rents by 5.9%.

In contrast, the top 10 markets where rent was cut by more than 3.5% all had construction rates well above the national norm. The worst declines were in Boise, ID where a 15.4% construction rate precipitated a 6.4% slump in effective rent, and in Austin, TX, where construction rose 14.4% and rents slipped 5.9%.

“Occupancy has declined in all asset classes and in turn rents have fallen [in areas with high apartment construction rates]. Operators give on rents in order to protect occupancy,” the report noted – a pattern it expects to continue through 2024.

“In lower supply markets, it appears rent growth is leveling off and likely to remain moderately positive. That’ll be especially true in the Northeast and Midwest regions, where supply is limited.”

If wage increases continue to outpace rent growth, demand could grow. If middle and upper-income renters move to newer and higher-priced units, it could help fill older, moderately priced units.

RealPage says 2025 could mark another turning point, when new construction slows “precipitously” leading to rising occupancy and rents.