So far, views of how the economy would progress after the Federal Reserve's attempts to fight inflation through a tough monetary policy — raising interest rates and reducing the Fed's balance sheet of bond holdings — have fallen into two camps.
In one, the preferred "soft landing," with the economy slowing gradually and touching down with unemployment remaining moderate and no recession. The other, "hard landing," would see some significant disruption in economic activity and higher unemployment.
But with the slow changes in inflation, GDP, and the job market, the Philadelphia Fed's Fourth Quarter 2023 Survey of Professional Forecasters has 34 economic forecasters looking toward a different possibility. If everything keeps changing slowly, it might be up in the air for a long time.
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