The world of CMBS isn't the entirety of CRE office loans, but given the lack of broader public data, it's an important indication of what might be happening in that market. The news from Moody's Analytics CRE isn't pleasant.
"The month of September saw ~$755mm CMBS office loans reach their fully extended maturity, the lowest number since April," they wrote. "The payoff rate of these maturities, while better than July and August, still came in at a paltry 11.1%. The YTD pay off rate fell slightly to 31.2%. Of the loans that have failed to pay off at maturity in 2023, half have managed to secure extensions from special servicers."
A large part of September's shortfall, as Moody's had previously speculated would happen, was the failure of the DUMBO Portfolio and 15 MetroTech Center to pay off at maturity.
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