Looking ahead to what commercial real estate might do in 2024, which is what PGIM Real Estate just did in a report, requires a baseline starting point.

It's a complex one. "Real estate is adjusting to elevated interest rates, with expectations of buyers and owners still far apart," the report said. "We estimate those expectations will not converge until property values fall another 10%. Nevertheless, property incomes remain resilient. U.S. rent growth will decelerate, but generally remain positive, as newly built properties deliver and demand moderates." The 10% estimate was general. "As usual in a real estate downturn, office will be the most impacted sector. Necessity-based real estate (defensive retail, senior housing and manufactured housing) should emerge comparatively better off."

The total expected peak-to-trough fall on average will be -24%, if PGIM is right. Break out by property type and you get senior housing at -9%, manufactured housing at -9%, retail of -13%, -17% for industrial, multifamily would have dropped -23%, and office far off at -43%.