Waiting for the distress wave in multifamily has been a thing since the fall of 2022. Many pros have been telling GlobeSt.com that it had to come. Interest rates that kept going up, too many deals at near zero interest and high leverage, banks shying off from lending, jumps in longer-term Treasury yields, and owners and investors worried about putting more good money after bad have been pushing outcomes.

And yet, even with falling transactions, dropping valuations, rising cap rates, and increasing loan delinquencies, there hasn't been the collapse — or at least big waves of distress — that were supposed to happen. The question has continued to be when. If Origin Investments is correct, that could be the second half of 2024.

"The volume of variable-rate bank loans—made when SOFR was 0% and the 10-year Treasury note yield was below 2%—coming due in 2024 will create a generational opportunity in senior debt and preferred equity investments," said Origin Investments Co-CEO David Scherer said in preprepared remarks. "Despite uncertainties, it remains a mistake to stay out of the multifamily investment market in 2024."