A lot of discussion in business and economic circles is around whether 2024 will bring a soft landing or some degree of recession. The optimists have been out in force for some time and are expecting a Federal Reserve rate cut as soon as the first quarter of next year.
But there are still those who think a recession could happen and that victory is far from clear. If that proves to be true, Yale School of Management's Professor of Finance and Management Andrew Metrick says to prepare for some serious trouble for commercial real estate and the banks that hold the loans.
"Historically, for every one percentage point increase in the policy rate from the Fed, banks take 1% hits to their capital over the next eight quarters," Metrick said in an interview with Yale Insights. From the zero-interest rate to the current baseline federal funds rate range of 5.25% to 5.50% has been a large and rapid leap. "If banks lose 5% of their capital, there are going to be a lot of banks in trouble."
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