There have been many analyses of CRE property sales, tallying the quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year drops. Property type by type, geographic differences. The creeping increases in loan delinquencies and defaults. Even valuations.

What makes this new Trepp analysis interesting is the focus on actual property prices, based on repeat sales methodology. It's not unique; some other firms do it. But it's an approach used not often enough. Comparing difference in sales prices on identical properties is a way to follow how market-determined values change, and not on a more arbitrary valuation from a bank but through what a property can command in open trading. "In total, we calculated 338,726 repeat sales since 2000 and have added 6,296 new sale pairs in Q3 2023" based on proprietary CRE transaction data, they wrote. Trepp then calculates its Trepp Property Price Index to show price movements over time.

There have been continuous declines since mid-year 2022. Since the end of 2022 Q3, the index declined by 5.8%. "The change in the direction of the CRE market can primarily be attributed to increasing interest rates and heightened inflation," they wrote. "Despite the Fed holding its benchmark rate steady in recent quarters, the high interest rates keep pushing CRE prices further downward as the TPPI continued to slip in 2023 Q3, with prices falling at a similar rate to what was observed in the last few quarters."