Housing Affordability Drawing People to These Markets

Lower home prices stand out as one benefit many Americans thought about when they chose to move to another state in 2023. On average, they could save $7,432 by relocating, according to a new analysis by Zillow of United Van Lines data.

That calculation is based on data showing the average home price in a metro of origin was $374,613, while the average price at their destination was $367,181.

“Although housing affordability has always played a key role in explaining migration patterns, the increase in house prices during the pandemic and the subsequent jump in mortgage rates appears to have intensified the search for more tolerable monthly payments,” Zillow commented. “Housing costs hit record highs last year, and made both buying and selling difficult, even for homeowners sitting on massive equity.”

The bite home mortgage payments take out of household income has risen from about 23% in November 2019 to nearly 39% in November 2023, according to Zillow. “In many places, especially the West Coast, costs are so high that a family making the median household income won’t even qualify for a mortgage.”

It is not surprising, then, that United Van Lines observed the largest net migration flows to relatively affordable markets in the South, Midwest and Northeast – even though its customers, according to Zillow, have higher average household incomes than movers overall. Clients also favored cities with fewer potential competitors per listing.

The metros United moving vans were most likely to head to were Charlotte, Providence, Indianapolis, Orlando and Raleigh. The highest outflows were from Chicago, San Diego, Cincinnati, Detroit and Boston. Cities undergoing an exodus “tended to experience less growth in their working-age population in the same year, and lower growth in home values in the year that immediately followed.”