A CMBS report from Fitch Ratings projects that the refinancing prospects of the category will be 'materially weaker" in 2024 than in 2023. It's one of the main reasons that the firm said that CMBS delinquencies would hit 4.50% in 2024 and 4.90% in 2025.

"Over $31.2 billion, or 1,473 of non-defaulted and non-defeased conduit and agency loans in Fitch-rated U.S. CMBS multiborrower transactions, excluding loans to which Fitch has assigned a credit opinion, are scheduled to mature in 2024," they wrote. "An additional $37.9 billion or 2,437 loans, mature in 2025. Combined, this is approximately 15% of the Fitch-rated conduit and agency universe by balance and is higher than the $26.5 billion that matured between October 2022 and December 2023."

Fitch used two different scenarios to see if a loan would meet debt service coverage and loan-to-value ratios to gain refinancing "at higher interest rates relative to in-place weighted average coupons (WAC) and at market capitalization rates."