Market predictions to the right, more to the left, and when they are polar opposites concerning one of the major influences on CRE lending rates, it's a conundrum.

The first up was Jeffrey Gundlach, founder, CEO, and chief investment officer of Doubleline, a money management firm that is a big player in the bond market. He said in a December 2023 CNBC interview that when the yield level of the 10-year Treasury market goes below 4%, it sounds "almost like a fire alarm." Gundlach also said he thought the 10-year yield would drop to the low 3s by sometime in 2024. "I think we're talking about a recession next year," he said, also saying that there may be a breakdown of the correlation of strong bonds and strong equities, which usually move in opposite directions.

Then there are the recent comments by Bill Gross on Twitter/X. Formerly called the Bond King when he was at Pacific Investment Management, he has made some apt moves, correctly guessing how the bond market would move since at least last August.